As the annual stoner holiday, April 20th or 4/20, approaches, expectations of substantial cannabis sales increases have arisen.
Despite the looming inflation across the United States, legal cannabis markets have seen significant price compression since late 2021. According to Brendan Mitchel-Chesebro, an analyst at cannabis data company BDSA, “BDSA retail sales tracking data show that equivalent average retail prices fell about 26% across mature markets between January 2022 and January 2023.”
Therefore, legal cannabis has only become more affordable, even though inflation may be hitting consumers hard.
BDSA predicts that nascent cannabis markets such as Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will all experience a significant increase in total dollar sales. Furthermore, BDSA believes that because April 20 falls on a Thursday, Thursday will see the largest increase in cannabis sales. According to Mitchel-Chesebro, BDSA seasonality data shows consistently heightened sales on 420, as the date’s significance within cannabis culture naturally leads to more retail traffic and sales. In addition, retailer efforts to capitalize on advertising, promotions, and discounts enhance that innate consumer enthusiasm.
BDSA suggests that the biggest discounts will be seen in more mature markets, due to the already gradual decrease of retail prices seen over the past year in comparison to newer cannabis markets. Inhalable products are likely to see the biggest discounts. For example, Missouri launched adult-use sales in February 2023, and BDSA recently analyzed data from the state, which has a smaller population than most other legal states but is expanding rapidly. Adult-use sales are expected to bring in ~$650 million in 2023, with total sales for the year estimated to be ~$958 million. BDSA forecasts Missouri to join the “billion-dollar cannabis market” club in 2024, with total sales expected to reach ~$1.1 billion and grow to ~$1.4 billion by 2026.
As the cannabis industry has grown in recent years, it has become more professional, and companies have started to offer April 20 as a paid holiday. “4/20 is a day to show appreciation, love and respect for cannabis and its power to help amplify the health and happiness that people experience in their daily lives,” said the Director of Retail and Customer Engagement from the Massachusetts-based retailer Temescal Wellness. “For us, it’s a day to celebrate our employees, whose passion, knowledge, and true dedication inspire their unparalleled service to our customers and our community all of the other days of the year.”
According to a study by Leafly, 39% of consumers plan on taking time off to celebrate the holiday in some capacity, and 70% of consumers are interested in trying infused beverages or beverage-enhancers this year. Additionally, 73% said that they would be consuming after 5 pm because April 20 falls on a Thursday. The cannabis industry has also seen an influx of new products, collaborations, and unique offerings to celebrate the holiday.
The monthly dog subscription known as Bark Box is offering a 420-themed box with toys that resemble cannabis paraphernalia. Publicity stunts like the cannabis edibles company Zen Cannabis made a 420-pound chocolate bar that measures nine feet by four feet. A giveaway for a Huracán Evo Purple Lamborghini in Las Vegas invites consumers to buy more than $200 in exotic cannabis to enter. These types of promotions and collaborations have been used to drive sales and increase brand awareness, and they have become increasingly popular as the cannabis industry continues to grow.
Finally, last year’s free gathering in San Francisco for 4/20 Hippie Hill was a tremendous success as the first 4/20 celebration with legal cannabis sales. This year, it continues to grow, with Grammy Winning Recording Artist Erykah Badu scheduled to host the festivities.
